FTBL #TuaForHeisman season stat tracking thread


#5
If Saban was a stat padder Tua would end up with 5,000 yards this season easily.
Here's the thing.. As we get deeper into our schedule and competition gets a little tougher, we may see Tua needed deeper into 3rd and 4th quarters. Through 5 games now with 14 passing TDs, he's averaging 2.8 per game. Multiply that by remaining games (if our production holds and he's not needed in the 4th), he'll finish with around 35 passing TDs on the season BEFORE the SECCG. He's averaging 232 YPG, so if that avg holds relatively steady through remaining 7 games, that'll give him around 2,786 YPG w/ ~35 passing TDs. Add a couple more TDs on the ground, that'll give him 38-40 TD responsibility. If those ain't Heisman numbers BEFORE the SECCG I don't know what is.

Now, let's just say that as the competition stiffens and he's needed more deeper into games, he could very well end up with well over 3k yards (likely somewhere around 3200) and even more TDs. Let's just say also that as said comp stiffens he throws a couple picks. At his current pace I don't see him tossing more than 5. 40 TDs and only 5 picks will have him locking it down before they get off the bus in Atlanta.

Then let's say that Georgia would be the toughest team to date but they still don't quite have an answer for him. He could very well end up w/ at least 3500 passing yards and 40+ TDs when Heisman voters do their thing.
 

BamaBoyJosh

Verified Member
#6
If Saban was a stat padder Tua would end up with 5,000 yards this season easily.
Here's the thing.. As we get deeper into our schedule and competition gets a little tougher, we may see Tua needed deeper into 3rd and 4th quarters. Through 5 games now with 14 passing TDs, he's averaging 2.8 per game. Multiply that by remaining games (if our production holds and he's not needed in the 4th), he'll finish with around 35 passing TDs on the season BEFORE the SECCG. He's averaging 232 YPG, so if that avg holds relatively steady through remaining 7 games, that'll give him around 2,786 YPG w/ ~35 passing TDs. Add a couple more TDs on the ground, that'll give him 38-40 TD responsibility. If those ain't Heisman numbers BEFORE the SECCG I don't know what is.

Now, let's just say that as the competition stiffens and he's needed more deeper into games, he could very well end up with well over 3k yards (likely somewhere around 3200) and even more TDs. Let's just say also that as said comp stiffens he throws a couple picks. At his current pace I don't see him tossing more than 5. 40 TDs and only 5 picks will have him locking it down before they get off the bus in Atlanta.

Then let's say that Georgia would be the toughest team to date but they still don't quite have an answer for him. He could very well end up w/ at least 3500 passing yards and 40+ TDs when Heisman voters do their thing.
Where's the stiff competition, though? LSU and Auburn (maybe) in the regular season. Those are literally the only two games I see Tua even playing in the second half. MAYBE Mississippi State if they improve, too.
 
#7
If Saban was a stat padder Tua would end up with 5,000 yards this season easily.
Here's the thing.. As we get deeper into our schedule and competition gets a little tougher, we may see Tua needed deeper into 3rd and 4th quarters. Through 5 games now with 14 passing TDs, he's averaging 2.8 per game. Multiply that by remaining games (if our production holds and he's not needed in the 4th), he'll finish with around 35 passing TDs on the season BEFORE the SECCG. He's averaging 232 YPG, so if that avg holds relatively steady through remaining 7 games, that'll give him around 2,786 YPG w/ ~35 passing TDs. Add a couple more TDs on the ground, that'll give him 38-40 TD responsibility. If those ain't Heisman numbers BEFORE the SECCG I don't know what is.

Now, let's just say that as the competition stiffens and he's needed more deeper into games, he could very well end up with well over 3k yards (likely somewhere around 3200) and even more TDs. Let's just say also that as said comp stiffens he throws a couple picks. At his current pace I don't see him tossing more than 5. 40 TDs and only 5 picks will have him locking it down before they get off the bus in Atlanta.

Then let's say that Georgia would be the toughest team to date but they still don't quite have an answer for him. He could very well end up w/ at least 3500 passing yards and 40+ TDs when Heisman voters do their thing.
Where's the stiff competition, though? LSU and Auburn (maybe) in the regular season. Those are literally the only two games I see Tua even playing in the second half. MAYBE Mississippi State if they improve, too.
He's still gonna be pushing 3k yards and 35 TDs in 12 games if his current averages hold steady while playing 2.5 quarters per game.

If he continues taking care of the ball and minimizes TOs, I don't see him tossing more than 5 picks even as the defenses get tougher.
3k yards, 35 TDs and only 5 picks (7:1 ratio) in what will amount to 30 quarters of action while the other contending QBs will likely have played AT LEAST 44-46 quarters thru 12 games.
 
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#8
@BamaBoyJosh let's extrapolate /quantify his #s even further...

His 232 YPG and 2.8 TDs a game divided by his ~ 2.5 quarters per game:

That's 92.8 YPQ (Yards per quarter) and 1.12 (TDPQ)

Multiply those numbers by, let's say 3.75 quarters average (accounting for about 4 min or so mop up time for QB2 per game)

That's 348 YPG and a tick over 4 TDPG, x 12:

That's a (projected) 4176 YP and 48 TDs thru 12 games.
 
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#9
Now let's talk about quarterly production for the next Heisman - contending QB behind Tua, Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State) ...

Currently he has 1464 PaYD, 19 TDs and 2 INT thru 5 games.

Per game avgs: 292 PaYPG, 3.8 TDPG, and .4 INT /game (putting him ~ 5 INT projected thru 12 games)

That's 73 YPQ, .95 TDPQ

(/ 4 quarters coz you KNOW Urbanino is gonna leave him in for stat padding)

When factoring PPQ (Production per quarter played), it's pretty much Tua's Heisman to lose.

#RatPoison
 

TerryP

ADMINISTRATION
#11
And STILL hasn't played a single snap in the 4th quarter (aside from place holding)
Just to add a small note here that I found interesting.

We saw the first disparity in snaps when Bama faced A&M two weeks ago. During that game Tua took 50 snaps with the offense, Jalen took 11.

If we take out the A&m game, the snap counts are almost identical: Tua with 113 and Jalen with 112.
 

UAgrad93

Jack of all trades!!
HARRY'S
#12
Just scanning through cfbstats.com and pulled some numbers.
Pass Defenses we are yet to face.

Miss State- 16th at 166.4 ypg
UGA- 17th 167.4
Viles- 32nd 182.6
Barn- 54th 211.8
LSU- 80th 230.8
Arky- 95th 247.0
Missouri 118th 293.8
 

TerryP

ADMINISTRATION
#16
@Sgt. Lincoln Osiris, On a few of these I had to stop and think a second, ya know? Casagrandre talking about his completion percentage on second down makes me wonder what's the average gained on first--don't know where to find that.

The second quarter stats need perspective. We've seen Jalen in the second quarter a few times and we've seen Tua come back in late in the second to run special offenses (IE: two minute situations.)

On a side note, seeing all of these touchdowns doesn't fit when I think back about Louisville: two TD's in that one.
 

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