| FTBL Predicting the AP Top 10 for Week 1 (Phil Steele):

12gage

Thread Starter
Century Club
Joined
Oct 27, 2006
Messages
1,368
Reaction score
434
Points
0
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Oklahoma
5. Ohio State
6. LSU
7. Florida
8. Notre Dame
9. Michigan
10. Texas
 

TUSKtimes

Riding The Wave
Crimson Tide Club
Joined
Jun 7, 2016
Messages
6,431
Reaction score
3,330
Points
0
Someone should do a concise article on winning percentage of teams ranked number one. I still smile when I think how Kirby wanted no part of the #1 ranking when the playoff committee put them as their #1 seed in 2017. Even quickly calling Bama the real #1 team. Then watched as they coughed up their spleen in their game on the plains a week later. It's so hard to win football games with that bullseye on your back and yet Alabama has thrived year after year after year with those type of expectations on their shoulders. It's been a lot more than just championships that have made this the most dominant run in college football in modern football history.
 

50+yeartidefan

Bama Club
Joined
Jan 29, 2017
Messages
3,954
Reaction score
1,820
Points
0
It's been a lot more than just championships that have made this the most dominant run in college football in modern football history.
....for the past 10 years......NCs in 09, 11, 12, 15, 17.....unbelievable..
1971-1980....Bears Bama.....NCs in 73, 78, 79.....played n lost in 71...77 team...should-a-been....
But also had 5 straight SEC Championship....and 8 or 9 in those 10 years...
With a playoff.....wonder how Bama would have done....
 

TUSKtimes

Riding The Wave
Crimson Tide Club
Joined
Jun 7, 2016
Messages
6,431
Reaction score
3,330
Points
0
....for the past 10 years......NCs in 09, 11, 12, 15, 17.....unbelievable..
1971-1980....Bears Bama.....NCs in 73, 78, 79.....played n lost in 71...77 team...should-a-been....
But also had 5 straight SEC Championship....and 8 or 9 in those 10 years...
With a playoff.....wonder how Bama would have done....

That would be more than interesting to find out. The mindset and focus that goes into a playoff where you know you win and no one can vote you out and the best teams were actually available to play can't be minimized. Compare that with a 10-1 team that goes to a bowl game and gets matched up against a lower ranked team from an independent or conference you have a written contract with. You can count on one hand the times the bowl era actually was able to match up the #1 and #2 team in the nation. Even when #2 Bama played #1 Penn State in 78 it was only because they were independent. Most years it was a real Miss America pageant.
 

TerryP

Ivory Club
Joined
Apr 5, 2006
Messages
39,617
Reaction score
7,969
Points
0
Even when #2 Bama played #1 Penn State in 78 it was only because they were independent.
PSU wanted to be in the Orange that year (versus OU.) Paterno was always clear on that subject.

The biggest reason they ended up in the Sugar was one Paul Bryant. It took some convincing when he talked to Paterno, but in the end they chose the Sugar over the Orange giving us #1 versus #2. Otherwise, we'd be looking at PSU and OU in the Orange and for the title. Based on '77—and Bryant feared this—there was an extremely good chance voters would have put Sims OU team over Bama with a win in the Orange (despite what Bama may or may not have done.)
 

TerryP

Ivory Club
Joined
Apr 5, 2006
Messages
39,617
Reaction score
7,969
Points
0
Top 8 would be great playoff
I still don't see how, or why, two games in four that would be blowouts (per Vegas current power rankings) makes it a great playoff. Out of four games, how are two with two scoring margins of difference "great playoffs?"

We just saw Clemson beat Notre Dame by four scores and they'd be favored by 12 if the games were played today. (FWIW, the line would be Bama (-12) vs Florida.)
 

50+yeartidefan

Bama Club
Joined
Jan 29, 2017
Messages
3,954
Reaction score
1,820
Points
0
I still don't see how, or why, two games in four that would be blowouts (per Vegas current power rankings) makes it a great playoff. Out of four games, how are two with two scoring margins of difference "great playoffs?"

We just saw Clemson beat Notre Dame by four scores and they'd be favored by 12 if the games were played today. (FWIW, the line would be Bama (-12) vs Florida.)
Well...terry with that logic..and looking at with a limited vision....
Shouldn’t even have a NC game because of blowout in last years game....
But backing it up....osu-bama was one score game...uga- Oklahoma was OT game... some are....some aren’t...same as Super Bowls...where most were blow outs... regardless...better watching than meaningless bowls with 5-8 in them....
But..back to the enviable .... 8 is coming.... we ALL know it
 

TerryP

Ivory Club
Joined
Apr 5, 2006
Messages
39,617
Reaction score
7,969
Points
0
better watching than meaningless bowls with 5-8 in them....
If you look at the rankings you'll find teams ranked #5 and #20 are better matchups.

I don't disagree that an OU vs OSU game would likely be a good ball game. However, what place would it have within the playoff picture if we see either team get blown out again? It's a game that richly deserves its spot within the New Years Day/night games. Playoffs? I just don't see it as competitive; historically it hasn't been.

We've seen 10 semi-playoff games to date. Three of them have been decided by six, seven, and 10 points. (The other seven blowouts.) So, we can realistically say we've seen two good semi-final games out of 10. The nine point win over OU wasn't as close as the score indicated (and the loss to Clemson wasn't as lopsided as the score indicated either.)

The point is the parity found today is in the group whose ranking ranges from #5 to #25. #2 vs #7? IMO, two different worlds, two different types of football teams.
 

50+yeartidefan

Bama Club
Joined
Jan 29, 2017
Messages
3,954
Reaction score
1,820
Points
0
It's a game that richly deserves its spot within the New Years Day/night game.
Days of any significant watching unless recovering from night before....are closing in on being....OVER

We've seen 10 semi-playoff games to date. Three of them have been decided by six, seven, and 10 points. (The other seven blowouts.) So, we can realistically say we've seen two good semi-final games out of 10. The nine point win over OU wasn't as close as the score indicated (and the loss to Clemson wasn't as lopsided as the score indicated either.)
Still worth watching games..... maybe quit in4th quarter.....if it was outta hand....upsets happen ..drama happens...still some intrigue...
Cant really place more value on meaningless game than meaningful game?
And really cant fully evaluate til...Bama n Clemson arent considered....just so good...

And i see the keep it at 4 side.....don't water it down ( which it wont)...
I remember...as you do....when the opinion was...name the National champ before the bowl.....and make the bowl game a reward...

And we saw...the BCS....and it’s computer screwups...putting ok in after getting beat by 40-50 points...or something...

Debate rages on.... how long before kickoff and the new season...lol
 

TerryP

Ivory Club
Joined
Apr 5, 2006
Messages
39,617
Reaction score
7,969
Points
0
And we saw...the BCS....and it’s computer screwups...putting ok in after getting beat by 40-50 points...or something...
And where were these screw ups with the BCS? If I'm not mistaken, every years the top two in the playoff era would have faced each other in the BCS era. Surely you're bringing Auburn in '04 into the picture? It was those very computers that recognized their strength of schedule and kept them where they were.

Quite frankly, I wouldn't change a thing about that 2004 season. The People's National Championship being won by a team other than Auburn—until the Auburn teen/fan that started the poll changed the date it ended (as in rewind) to reflect Auburn—was one of the best stories of that decade in entertainment value.
 

TUSKtimes

Riding The Wave
Crimson Tide Club
Joined
Jun 7, 2016
Messages
6,431
Reaction score
3,330
Points
0
PSU wanted to be in the Orange that year (versus OU.) Paterno was always clear on that subject.

The biggest reason they ended up in the Sugar was one Paul Bryant. It took some convincing when he talked to Paterno, but in the end they chose the Sugar over the Orange giving us #1 versus #2. Otherwise, we'd be looking at PSU and OU in the Orange and for the title. Based on '77—and Bryant feared this—there was an extremely good chance voters would have put Sims OU team over Bama with a win in the Orange (despite what Bama may or may not have done.)

The beginning of a beautiful relationship. I'm not counting the 74 Sugar Bowl but it probably had a lot to do also with the rematch in 78 and the 10-year contract between them. The Sooners were #1 until they lost to Nebraska.

But I still think that year USC was a little better than any of us. They thumped us pretty good that year in B'ham and did end up NC in the coaches poll.
 

50+yeartidefan

Bama Club
Joined
Jan 29, 2017
Messages
3,954
Reaction score
1,820
Points
0
And where were these screw ups with the BCS? If I'm not mistaken, every years the top two in the playoff era would have faced each other in the BCS era.
2017....bama was 4th....uga 1 or 2..... so no....top 2 didn't play for NC
Where they would have been in bcs .....i dont know
 

TUSKtimes

Riding The Wave
Crimson Tide Club
Joined
Jun 7, 2016
Messages
6,431
Reaction score
3,330
Points
0
2017....bama was 4th....uga 1 or 2..... so no....top 2 didn't play for NC
Where they would have been in bcs .....i dont know

Unfortunately, the same place we were after "the kick" in 2013. We were better than the barn in a rematch and FSU. And we won again as a 4th seed in 2015. Sorry, that was Ohio State who won as a 4th seed in 2014.
 

TerryP

Ivory Club
Joined
Apr 5, 2006
Messages
39,617
Reaction score
7,969
Points
0
Unfortunately, the same place we were after "the kick" in 2013.
Is that year being suggested as a BCS screwup?
2017....bama was 4th....uga 1 or 2..... so no....top 2 didn't play for NC
You're using the playoff rankings as an argument against the BCS here? If so, I'm a bit confused.

The computers would have kept OU out of the BCS due to their loss to Iowa State. Bama would have been left out due to their late season loss to Auburn. We'd have been looking at UGA vs Clemson. Remember, UGA won their game against a #2 ranked Auburn team in the SECCG.

Bama would have missed out on the BCS that season. And, it would have been the correct call.
 

TUSKtimes

Riding The Wave
Crimson Tide Club
Joined
Jun 7, 2016
Messages
6,431
Reaction score
3,330
Points
0
Is that year being suggested as a BCS screwup?
Say what? I think it means that the BCS was not inclusive enough. The BCS did what the bowl system accomplished. Neither has accomplished what the 4 team playoff has attained.
 

TerryP

Ivory Club
Joined
Apr 5, 2006
Messages
39,617
Reaction score
7,969
Points
0
The BCS did what the bowl system accomplished. Neither has accomplished what the 4 team playoff has attained.
Say what?
You just said in this thread how the bowl system rarely put #1 vs #2 and then suggest they accomplished the same thing?

The BCS put the top two teams against each other every year. That's the point. The playoff, by putting OU in at #2 in 2017, has already screwed that one up.
 

TUSKtimes

Riding The Wave
Crimson Tide Club
Joined
Jun 7, 2016
Messages
6,431
Reaction score
3,330
Points
0
You just said in this thread how the bowl system rarely put #1 vs #2 and then suggest they accomplished the same thing?

The BCS put the top two teams against each other every year. That's the point.
Right, the BCS did what we asked it to do. Doesn't mean they picked the best team. The bowl system took Michigan State and Notre Dame ahead of undefeated Bama in 66. It did what it was intended to do. Play politics and show bias, but it didn't mean they were correct or that's the way the cookie would have crumbled under the BCS system. Nor do I think the BCS winners are the way the cookie would always crumble under the 4 team playoff. Thus the debate these days for an 8 team playoff.
 

Top Bottom