| FTBL 🏈 👀 PRE-GAME: Georgia @ Alabama week

mando

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Throughout the threads I have been reading this week, I see a lot of people acting like the Alabama offense is not going to miss a beat against UGA. Sorry but this is going to be tough sledding. We know Smart understands the need to stop the rush and they will do everything they can to shut the run down and force Bama to be one dimensional. Jones will not have as much time to throw. OL play and Sark's game plan/play calling are going to be critical.
 

Tidestalker

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I pretty much agree, this might be a whole different situation. Some physicality & blitz packages up front could really distrupt our rhythm. We just don't know until they line up in the trenches...

At the same time, I really feel like we have the weapons to score a bunch of points regardless. All it takes is the pass or run the start clicking, and eventually it opens up the other. I really believe Waddle is the best player in the history of football and Smith isn't far behind (Joking, kinda). Harris is a big game hunter. Less pressure on Mac at home and with no crowd... We won't put up 50, but if it's less than 30 I would be slightly surprised.
 
B

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Date: Saturday, October 17
Game Time: 8:00 ET
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Network: CBS

Why Georgia Will Win
Georgia didn’t get the memo that no one in the SEC is playing any defense this year.

The Bulldogs lead the nation in run defense, are second in total defense just behind a Houston team that played one game, and it’s been able to clamp down when needed in each of the first three games.

Arkansas and Tennessee were each in their respective games against the Dawgs, and then up came the wall in the second halves, and both games were over.

On the other side, how is it that Georgia is able to get by with Stetson Bennett at quarterback? He’s not making mistakes, he’s hitting the downfield throws that Jake Fromm didn’t last year, and he’s getting a whole lot of time to work behind a line that’s doing a terrific job so far.

The Alabama secondary has been toasted way too easily so far getting hammered for 322 passing yards per game and coming off a rough day getting ripped up by the Ole Miss attack.

However …

Why Alabama Will Win
Yes, the Georgia defense has been outstanding, but after dealing with fine Arkansas, Auburn, and Tennessee offenses, get ready for a whole other level of offensive fabulousness.

The Tide put away the Missouri and Texas A&M games early on and coasted, and last week against the Rebels, the attack was unstoppable after a few empty drives in the first quarter. Bama leads the nation averaging 51 points per game and is third in the country in yards.

Georgia might have the defense, but doesn’t have the offense to keep up if the Tide offense gets going early?

Mac Jones is playing like a Heisman candidate – hitting 80% of his passes for 1,101 yards and eight touchdowns.

Najee Harris is playing like a Heisman candidate – running for 347 yards and ten touchdowns and catching seven passes.

DeVonta Smith might be the best wide receiver in the country, if it’s not Jaylen Waddle.

However …

What’s Going To Happen
Georgia knows what it’s doing.

It’s great at controlling the clock, letting the defense take over games, making teams play at its level. Is Bennett up to the job?

Yeah, and it still won’t be enough.

Georgia will come up with more than enough stops to keep this from ever getting out of hand, and this certainly won’t be the Bama-Ole Miss game with haymakers being traded, but after last week the Tide defense will be better and the offense will still be the offense.

Georgia, though, will have its chances to come through, but it’ll settle for a few second half field goals when it’ll need touchdowns.

By the way, this might be the first of three meetings – these two could hook up in the SEC Championship and again in the College Football Playoff. Both of them are just that good.

Georgia vs Alabama Prediction, Line
Alabama 27, Georgia 23

Alabama -6, o/u: 57
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
 

BamaFan334

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Their linebackers are the concern, not their defensive line. They have athletes, but our offensive line can handle their defensive line. Their backers can blitz and run, so that's the concern. With that being said, Sarkesian and Mac will have a plan. Georgia's secondary cannot hang with Smith, Waddle, and Metchie. Not saying we score 50 and that we won't have times of struggle, but I think we hit 40 points.
 

mando

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We may need that many but I do not see it happening. I see the UGA defense the way I used to see the Bama defenses of old. I know there were a few teams that the really good Bama defenses struggled with and those were more spread HUNH offenses with a mobile QB. Jones is not the true mobile QB nor is the offense a HUNH. We do have some athletes for sure and we are not required play smash mouth football. We will make some plays just not sure if we make enough to score 40 points. I would be pleasantly surprised if we go over 30. Honestly what I am hoping for is a much improved D to hold their points products down simply because of the offensive scheme UGA plays. We need that so that the offense is not under pressure to score on as many possession which I think would be to much to ask in this game.
 

BamaFan334

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Understandable with your concerns there. My question to you is, who has Georgia played that is even in the stratosphere of Alabama offensively, athletically, and just size and speed? Tennessee, Auburn, and Arkansas don't have the running backs, receivers, or quarterbacks that we have. Tennessee could possibly say they have a similar offensive line, but Auburn and Arkansas cannot. I'm not saying we blow them out of the water like we did Ole Miss offensively, but I just cannot see them stopping our record setting offense. The key will be Miller Forestall. If he can keep the backers guessing, Najee can gash them and set them up for deeper plays with Smith, Waddle, and Metchie. LeCounte will have his hands full. If the "great" Derrick Stingley cannot stop our guys, Tyson Campbell, Eric Stokes, and DJ Daniel won't. I see Georgia's defense a lot like LSU's last year with some guys that can make plays and run, but they clearly aren't even close offensively to that LSU team and won't be able to keep up.

Georgia has started out slow in two of their first three games. They will not be afforded that opportunity against Alabama. I think we all agree our boys will not be playing like Auburn did against the Dawgs, so Georgia better come out firing. Kirbee knows this, and I think he'll work a few wrinkles with Darnell Washington to keep us off balance. As many have said, tackling will be key. Getting Zeus and James Cook, and even Kenny McIntosh to the ground will make or break us. If we can't tackle, then they can do whatever they want, even with a limited quarterback.

This is a game that if it goes 58-55 and we win, I will be happier because it's a top tier opponent that we may see in Atlanta or the Playoffs, a team we recruit against, and a team I have learned to despise despite my fandom all the way through my early 20's. I am thinking it's going to be a 42-32 type game. Now watch me be 100% wrong and it be a 21-17 type game like you're stating, ha ha.
 

TerryP

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Things we'll set aside for just a moment on Georgia's Defense-opponents rankings:

SEC STANDINGS AFTER WEEK THREE:

TEAMRUSHINGPASSINGSCORINGTOTAL
Arkansas13th9th13th12th
Auburn7th12th11th13th
Tennessee10th11th7th11th


Now for the question:

Do you think Georgia's defense is better this year than last season? If the answer is last season was the better unit, how do you explain ...

481 total yards
349- passing
132- rushing
37 points.

If you believe UGA's defense isn't as good as last seasons where LSU put those numbers up where is the fear and trepidation founded?
 

NickelDoubleDog

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UGA had a pretty good D in 2018 and the Alabama offense with an injured Tua who also played poorly making mistakes before leaving with an aggravated injury put up 35 points.
 

BamaFan334

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But LSU put up those numbers on everyone, Alabama and Clemson included. Using that offense as the barometer isn't exactly fair. But I agree with what you're saying. Georgia's competition hasn't been great so far.
 

TerryP

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Why not?

The Bama offense was on par with LSU last season as evidenced below. From what we've seen so far the offense is doing better this season than last.

2019:

TEAMRUSHINGPASSINGSCORINGTOTAL
Alabama6th- 168.42nd- 342.22nd - 47.22nd - 510.8
LSU7th - 166.81st - 401.61st - 48.41st - 568.4

Again, where's the foundation of all this fear? I'm not arguing one way or another here on who wins this game.

I want to know the reasoning because it's hard to see. Is it quantifiable reasoning?
 

BamaFan334

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I'm not really worried about Georgia's defense. I think they are really good, but I also think it's skewed due to a few teams with bottom tier offenses as your statistics show to this point. Our offense looks amazing. I also know they can't remain near perfect all season long in efforts of carrying a defense. It's simply not probable.

As far as your comparison, LSU did it for a complete season and was able to do it against Georgia in the SEC Championship and Clemson in the National Championship. Alabama hasn't shown it can keep up this clip for an entire season. Nothing against Alabama, but only time can tell in this discussion. Mind you, LSU's defense was giving up ~335 yards of offense a game last year compared to Alabama's 473 right now. That's a number of extra possessions for LSU compared to Alabama. LSU could still not score points and have a shot to accumulate massive points and yards whereas Alabama isn't showing it has as much room for error with it's offense because of the defense. All fixable and I'm sure we won't have too many games where we give up that many points, but that's the reason I'm saying it's not a fair comparison.
 

TerryP

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The lowest output last year was right at 375 yards against Arkansas last season when scoring 35. No one stopped Bama's offense last season. I don't get how you think they didn't maintain the offensive production when the numbers reflect they did.

I do believe you're getting my point. A lot of this angst is based on what? For every " I worry about" there's a "I'm not worried about."

We're seeing people point to the upset with UGA winning in Tuscaloosa Saturday. I'm seeing the normal hyperbole leading up to a good ball game.
 

c5vetman

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I know Ga has had a great year so far defensively, but if Auburn, Tennessee, and Arky's offense scares you, I don't know what to think. Of course a defense is going to look good against bad competition. Also, I don't think any of those 3 teams really have a shut down defense, either, and GA still hasn't looked great on offense. I think it comes down to we've played some really good offenses (OM), given up some garbage time comebacks (ATM and MIZ), and played lights out offense compared to GA playing some weak teams and just overwhelming them. Tennessee is probably the best team out of those 3 as a whole.
 

c5vetman

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to add to it, the only part of GA that scares me, really, is their ability to play dirty. I just don't want any chop blocks taking out one of our guys, or taunting us into doing something stupid.
 

TerryP

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Underestimating in my view.

Do they take A&M's approach with stunting? Yah, I think so. Play action has them because they're in pass pro.

Mizzou with crashing safeties? I hope so.

Mac has to keep his head. I believe he will.
 

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