That's 1 way to look at it. But not exactly accurate.
I mean gamble in the sense that nothing is really guaranteed, you're right that risk vs. reward is extremely important. We saw that play out with Tua last year. These guys are given a ton of feedback at the end of the year, more than any other CFB team. It's ultimately up to them and their families what to do with the info and recommendations, but they won't lack the resources and feedback at UA under Saban.
Chase can't hold a candle to Smith. I feel Davonta doesn't get the respect he deserves. It was Tylan Wallace, Coxie from Memphis, the guy from SMU, and even Olave from Ohio State. Smith is better than them all. Chase had one year where the entire offense had a big year, not just him.