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Thread: Just how much talent is in Tuscaloosa...

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    STAFF HALL OF FAME MEMBER planomateo's Avatar
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    Default Just how much talent is in Tuscaloosa...

    Good writeup today on RBR.

    You guys think the 2008 class was loaded, this 2013 has all the makings to be really really special. Just need the guys to buy into it and make sure the leadership is there. Something tells me we brought in a few really strong leaders in this class.

    If everybody suits up as expected, in 2013 we will have 23 elite first-year, second-year, and third-year players (Jesse Williams and Travell Dixon gone bye-bye, for very different reasons). The most we have had any previous year was 13, in 2009, 2010 and 2012.


    http://www.rollbamaroll.com/2013/2/9...vals-stars-NSD

    Why Rivals, you might ask? Because, although the rise of 247 and ESPN's increased seriousness about recruiting have upped the competition, Rivals is still strong and was the unquestioned gold standard in recruiting evaluations for much of this period.

    Why elite prospects only you might ask? Because sometimes the 3-stars hit it big (hello, Johnny Manziel and Marcell Dareus), but the guys at the top of the list hit it big often.

    Why 2004 you might ask? Because that's when Rivals started doing its numerical ratings.

    Why Alabama blah blah blah? Roll Tide, baby. So let's get going.

    You probably all know about Rivals' star ranking system, but you may not know about Rivals' numerical ratings. Since 2004, all prospects have received a numerical rating of from 4.9 to 6.1 (and don't ask me why). For our purposes, it's the 6.0 prospects and the 6.1 prospects that count. All 5-stars are 6.1s, and the 6.0s are the cream of the 4-stars.

    From my vantage point, it has appeared that the 6.0s are only a tad behind the 6.1s, and are deserving of the "elite" tag. Rivals gives out something like 35 6.1s and 50 6.0s a year, nationally.

    Here are Alabama's elite signees since Rivals began its numerical rating system.

    2004 - 1 elite signee
    1 6.0 (Nikita Stover)

    2005 - 1 elite signee
    1 6.0 (Roy Upchurch)

    2006 - 1 elite signee
    1 6.1 (Andre Smith)

    2007 - 3 elite signees
    3 6.0s (Michael Ricks, Rolando McClain, Kerry Murphy)

    2008 - 8 elite signees
    3 6.1s (B.J. Scott, Julio Jones, Tyler Love)
    5 6.0s (Mark Barron, Kerry Murphy, Jerrell Harris, Alonzo Lawrence, Barrett Jones)

    2009 - 5 elite signees
    4 6.1s (Trent Richardson, D.J. Fluker, Nico Johnson, Dre Kirkpatrick)
    1 6.0 (Tana Patrick)

    2010 - 1 elite signee
    1 6.1 (Dee Milliner)

    2011 - 6 elite signees
    3 6.1s (Cyrus Kouandjio, Ha'Sean Clinton-Dix, Dee Hart)
    3 6.0s (Brent Calloway, Jesse Williams, Jeoffrey Pagan)

    2012 - 7 elite signees
    3 6.1s (Eddie Williams, T.J. Yeldon, Landon Collins)
    4 6.0s (Chris Black, Amari Cooper, Travell Dixon, Reggie Ragland)

    2013 - 12 elite signees
    4 6.1s (Jonathan Allen, A'Shawn Robinson, O.J. Howard, Reuben Foster)
    8 6.0s (ArDarius Stewart, Robert Foster, Altee Tenpenny, Dee Liner, Grant Hill, Tyren Jones, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry)

    Did I say something about ratings mattering? Let's check that: leaving off anything later than 2010, because those guys haven't had time to fully develop yet, we signed 20 elite prospects from 2004-2010. We can easily reduce that to 18 since Kerry Murphy signed twice and Michael Ricks never made it on campus.

    Those 18 players include Andre Smith, Rolando McClain, Julio Jones, Mark Barron, Barrett Jones, Trent Richardson, D.J. Fluker, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Dee Milliner. Yes, 50% of the elite players who actually made it to campus became 1st-string All-Americans. Of those 9 names, 3 are up for the draft this year, and the other 6 all went in the first round, and 5 of 'em were among the first 8 drafted in their year.

    So, ratings, then? They matter? Let's check again: here are the guys from each class who turned into what I would call stars - and obviously, this is really subjective, so feel free to roll your own list. Again, I'm only looking at 2010 and earlier and giving the newer guys time:

    2004 - not a bloody one (D.J. Hall?)

    2005 - not a stinkin' one (probably the closest were Roy Upchurch and John Parker Wilson, which ain't that close, sorry)

    2006 - 2 (Andre Smith, Javier Arenas)

    2007 - 1 (Rolando McClain)

    2008 - 7 (Mark Barron, Marcell Dareus, Terrence Cody, Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, Barrett Jones, Courtney Upshaw)

    2009 - 6 (D.J. Fluker, Eddie Lacy, Dre Kirkpatrick, AJ McCarron, Trent Richardson, Chance Warmack)

    2010 - 2 (DeMarcus Milliner, C.J. Mosley)

    10 of those 18 stars (56%) were elites, although only a little over 10% of the players signed during that period were elite.

    Phun Phaks

    Most 5-stars: 4, in 2009 and 2013

    Jonathan Allen and A'Shawn Robinson are the first 2 5-star defensive linemen Saban has signed.

    If everybody suits up as expected, in 2013 we will have 23 elite first-year, second-year, and third-year players (Jesse Williams and Travell Dixon gone bye-bye, for very different reasons). The most we have had any previous year was 13, in 2009, 2010 and 2012.

    Among that number will be 5 first- or second-year elite running backs, and that doesn't count Kenyan Drake, who was probably underrated coming out of high school.

    Shula's 4 classes on this list produced a total of 6 elite prospects, only 4 of whom actually made it onto the team the year they were signed. This year we have 12.

    Nobody talked about it at the time, but 2010 stands out among Saban's recruiting classes, and not in a good way. Dee Milliner was the only elite prospect; we have had at least 5 every other year starting with 2008, and Milliner and Mosley were the class's only stars, against 7 and 6 stars inked the two preceding years.

    Still. Things picked up a wee tad when Saban hauled into the Druid City, no? (Except there's that 2010. . . .)

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    Registered Users HEISMAN ElephantStomp's Avatar
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    Why did Travell Dixon leave the team??

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    STAFF HALL OF FAME MEMBER planomateo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ElephantStomp View Post
    Why did Travell Dixon leave the team??
    IIRC, he was a stud JUCO, only started playing football his Sr. year of high school. He had alot of raw talent, would imagine the depth of our DB's and him having a limited amount of playing time left to play, as he was a JUCO transfer.

    He left prior to the start of the 2012 season, he's at U of Washington and at out last year.

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    Registered Users HALL OF FAME MEMBER Birdman37's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ElephantStomp View Post
    Why did Travell Dixon leave the team??
    Probably the same reason Alonzo Lawrence never was able to get on the field (and BJ Scott for that matter)... just couldnt get the mental aspect of the defense.

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    STAFF HEISMAN kudzu's Avatar
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    We know how much talent is on the field, the interesting question is ..... just how much talent is on the bench waiting.
    Cheers SDMF !

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    Default Just how much talent is in Tuscaloosa...

    Is it game time yet??? Can't wait to see how these fellas produce on the field. Wish it was college football season already!

    Thanks to mrchase!

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    Junior Member RECRUIT rolltide93's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kudzu View Post
    We know how much talent is on the field, the interesting question is ..... just how much talent is on the bench waiting.

    Great point! Hopefully none of these 5 starts pull a Phillip sims and give up, don't care what anyone says he left cause he saw AJ dominating

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